Despite Their Slow Start in Q1, IDC Maintains Forecast of 16% Unit Growth for PC Sales in EMEA for 2000

LONDON, JUNE 13, 2000 – Despite a slow start in the first quarter of 2000, IDC remains optimistic for the whole year and maintains an overall forecast of 16.1% unit growth for PC shipments in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). PC shipment revenues will suffer, however, as a result of an increasingly competitive environment, and year-on-year growth in value is expected to remain below 10%.

 

The Internet and lower prices will continue to drive consumer sales in Europe whereas Windows 2000 should help stimulate business demand in the second half of the year. Also contributing to the overall positive outlook, the booming notebook market is expected to increase shipments more than 25%.

"A wait-and-see approach toward Windows 2000 as well as CPU shortages will limit the prospects for a strong business rebound in the second quarter," said Karine Paoli, EMEA PC Tracker program manager for IDC. "In this context, the fast-growing consumer and notebook markets will represent an important challenge for PC vendors."

EMEA PC Unit Shipment Growth by User Segment, 2000

User Segment Forecast Unit Growth for 2000

Home 24.3%

Education 15.3%

Government 6.9%

Small Office (1-9 employees) 17.3%

Small Business (10-99) 16.4%

Medium Business (100-499) 13.4%

Large Business (500-999) 6.9%

Very Large Business (1,000+) 5.2%

Source: IDC EMEA, Q1 2000

Key Market Trends

Consumer markets will remain particularly strong in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, where continued aggressive pricing in the retail channel, brand competition, and increased demand for Internet access will continue to stimulate purchases and renewals. Consumer notebook sales, which took off in 4Q99 and recorded impressive growth in 1Q00, will also continue to sustain high levels of growth throughout 2000.

The notebook market should continue to boom in Europe. Driven by both business and consumer demand, and after the impressive growth recorded in the past two quarters, portable sales should continue to record strong double-digit growth rates throughout 2000. Increased price/performance/benefit ratio, an increasingly competitive environment, and a much broader product range are allowing Europe to increase its notebook penetration in both the business and consumer sectors. Consumer sales are expected to experience over 53% growth in 2000 and business sales more than 22% unit growth.

Server shipments are expected to record limited growth once again in the second quarter, largely due to a wait-and-see approach from businesses toward Windows 2000. Stronger demand is expected to pick up in the second half of the year, however.

Finally, the emerging markets will also directly contribute to the healthy growth in EMEA. The continuing resurgence of PC sales in Russia and the strong positive influence exerted by Poland on regional sales are expected to bring the overall growth in East Central Europe to 13.4% for 2000. Positive trends are also expected to continue in the Middle East and Africa, driven by Turkey, Israel, and the "rest of Middle East" – countries.

Top 5 Vendors, EMEA Unit PC Shipments, Final 1Q00 (000s)

Vendor Units 1Q99 Unit Share 1Q99 Units 1Q00 Unit Share 1Q00

Compaq 1,321 17.10% 1,257 14.70%

Fujitsu Siemens 894 11.60% 862 10.10%

Dell 688 8.90% 764 8.90%

Hewlett-Packard 448 5.80% 624 7.30%

IBM 687 8.90% 554 6.50%

Top 5 Vendors 4,038 52.30% 4,061 47.40%

Other Vendors 3,687 47.70% 4,515 52.60%

Grand Total 7,725 100.00% 8,576 100.00%

Source: IDC, final results, May 2000

· Shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.

· Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods.

· Data for Compaq includes Compaq, Digital Equipment, and Tandem products.

· Data for Fujitsu Siemens includes shipments for Fujitsu and Siemens.

About IDC

IDC delivers dependable, high-impact insights and advice on the future of ebusiness, the Internet, and technology to help organizations make sound business decisions. IDC forecasts worldwide markets and trends and analyzes business strategies, technologies, and vendors, using a combination of rigorous primary research and in-depth competitive analysis. IDC provides global research with local content through more than 500 analysts in 43 countries worldwide. IDC's customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, ebusiness companies, and the financial community. Additional information can be found at http://www.idc.com.

IDC is a division of IDG, the world's leading IT media, research and exposition company.

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