IDC Believes PKI Is Off the Test Track, On the Road, and Heading for the Expressway

FRAMINGHAM, MA – DECEMBER 18, 2000 – The public key infrastructure (PKI) marketplace has evolved quickly and is becoming an enabling technology for improved business-to-business (B2B) ecommerce. According to IDC, the total market for PKI products and certificate authority (CA) services will accelerate at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61%, from $281 million in 1999 to a whopping $3 billion in 2004.


"PKI technology is moving from pilot testing into the real world of ecommerce," said Charles Kolodgy, research manager for IDC’s Internet Security program. "The push toward B2B ecommerce is fueling the adoption of PKI as a business-enablement infrastructure tool for distributed authentication, authorization, encryption, and administration. New deployments of PKI technologies, including remote access, secure messaging, content delivery, and transactional security, demonstrate the technology's transition from the test track to the production roadway."

Although PKI product and CA services will both grow strongly, IDC expects a role reversal between the two market segments in terms of revenue share. Whereas two-thirds of the total PKI revenue was from products in 1999, less than half of it will be from products in 2002. By 2004, CA services will represent almost 60% of total PKI revenue.

"Certificate authority services will become more pervasive as digital certificates become commodities used within PKI-enabled ecommerce applications,"Kolodgy said. "As this happens, CA services will nearly quadruple from 1999 to 2001."

Despite PKI’s positive outlook, IDC believes it has limitations. PKI is a complex grouping of technologies that can still be difficult and expensive to deploy. Additionally, it is not a total security solution; it relies on PKI-enabled applications for success.

Information like the above can be found in IDC’s bulletin PKI 2000: Still Waiting for Godot? (IDC #B23368). This bulletin examines PKI adoption and forecasts revenue through 2004. PKI products and certificate authority services, as well as the market dynamics of each, are analyzed. To purchase this report, contact Cheryl Toffel at 1-800-343-4952, extension 4389, or at

About IDC

IDC is the foremost global market intelligence and advisory firm helping clients gain insight into technology and ebusiness trends to develop sound business strategies. Using a combination of rigorous primary research, in-depth analysis, and client interaction, IDC forecasts worldwide markets and trends to deliver dependable service and client advice. More than 700 analysts in 43 countries provide global research with local content. IDC's customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, ebusiness companies and the financial community. Additional information can be found at

IDC is a division of IDG, the world's leading IT media, research and exposition company.

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