IDC Expects Over 15% Unit Growth in 1999 Winchester Disk Drive Shipments, but No Revenue Growth

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., July 7 — Shipments in the worldwide Winchester disk drive market are on an upward climb. In 1998, they increased 11.1% to 143.6 million, and growth in 1999 will be even stronger. International Data Corporation (IDC) expects the market to jump 15.5% and approach 166 million units as the decade comes to a close.

"Shipment growth will largely be the result of steady demand for various system categories, especially PCs and PC servers. Unfortunately, overcapacity in desktop and mobile drive segments, coupled with intense competitive pressures, will put continued pressure on drive revenue growth," said Danielle Levitas, research manager of IDC's Storage, Hard Disk Drive (HDD), and Components research programs.

The fastest-growing segment of this market will be entry servers. Shipments in this segment will earn a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% from 1998 to 2003, when they will total 15.3 million. The largest segment, desktop HDDs, will total more than 205 million by 2003. The traditional workstation segment, however, will not participate in the market's upswing. Its shipments will deteriorate at a CAGR of 6% throughout IDC's forecast.

Despite experiencing a 2% decline in shipments in 1998 and losing some market share, Seagate managed to hold onto its market-leading position with a 21% share. Quantum was second with 17.6%. Both Maxtor and Hitachi increased their shipments by about 100% in 1998.

IDC has just published a new report, 1999 Winchester Disk Drive Market Forecast and Review (IDC #B19017), that reviews and forecasts consumption of Winchester disk drives. The report splits the market into the following segments: mobile, desktop PC, traditional workstation, entry server, and multiuser. For each segment, unit and revenue reviews and forecasts are provided by host platform, form factor, and capacity range. Winchester disk drive average selling prices are shown by capacity range. Average drive capacity, dollar per MB, and gigabytes shipped are also forecasted by system category. The report also includes vendor market shares for 1997 and 1998. To view the complete table of contents, visit http://www.idc.com and search for 19017. To order a copy of the report, contact Sue Beauregard at 1-800-343- 4952, ext. 4774 or at sbeauregard@idc.com.

About IDC

International Data Corporation is the information technology industry's most comprehensive resource on worldwide IT markets, trends, products, vendors, and geographies. IDC provides data, analysis, and advisory services to the world's leading IT suppliers as well as IS professionals in finance, insurance, entertainment, advertising, consumer goods, and publishing. IDC's research and opinions are based on the results of more than 300,000 end-user surveys, in-depth competitive analysis, broad technology coverage, and strategic analysis. IDC is committed to providing global research with local content through its 500 analysts in more than 40 countries worldwide. Additional information on IDC can be found on its Web site at http://www.idc.com.

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