IDC Forecasts Solid Worldwide Q2 2000 PC Demand with 15.2% Unit Growth over Q2 1999

FRAMINGHAM, MA – JUNE 6, 2000 – Unit volume in the worldwide PC market this quarter is expected to reach 30.3 million on year-over-year growth of 15.2%, according to forecast data released today by IDC. Global expansion this quarter will again be led by markets in Asia as well as a continued pattern of high consumer demand.

 

Japan is expected to continue to be a "hot" market with year-on-year growth of nearly 41%, fueled by consumers, new low-cost desktop models, and business PC upgrades in part stimulated by the extension of a tax legislation.

The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) region also retains its high-growth position this quarter with predicted expansion of 25%. As elsewhere, the consumer segment will propel growth with shipments at a level close to 50% above last year. Key market drivers include lower price points drawing more households to PCs and government-sponsored programs in countries like Korea that promote PC purchases.

On a sequential basis, IDC forecasts a slight decline in global PC volume, pegged to a mixed story in U.S. growth. "While the U.S. consumer market remains strong, we see a tighter supply of desktop PCs due to current CPU shortages,"said Bruce Stephen, IDC group vice president of Worldwide Personal Systems Research.

IDC also believes demand for desktop PCs in corporate accounts may not rebound much this quarter, contributing to an expected single-digit year-on-year growth rate. However, demand in corporate accounts should improve in the second half of 2000 as the Windows 2000 upgrade cycle moves into higher gear.

The market outlook in Western Europe is for improved growth this quarter after a sluggish Q1 in which year-on-year unit shipments increased just over 8%. This quarter volume is projected to jump 16% as the commercial market shakes off the Y2K effect and consumer demand remains high, sparked by the Internet, employee purchase programs, and aggressive retail pricing.

Elsewhere, IDC believes Latin America will continue its impressive expansion this quarter.

Vendors

An improvement in unit market share this quarter will likely occur among those vendors strongly positioned in consumer, Asian, and Latin America markets. In addition, the portable PC market will grow at a better than average rate. Ranking global vendors who can benefit from these growth factors include Acer, Hewlett-Packard, Dell, and Gateway.

Table 1

Top 5 Vendors, U.S. PC Shipments, First Quarter 2000

(Thousands of Units)

Q1 2000 Q1 2000 Market Q1 1999 Market Growth

Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 2000/99

1 Dell 1,980 17.08% 1,454 14.61% 36.18%

2 Compaq 1,890 16.30% 1,597 16.05% 18.34%

3 Hewlett-Packard 1,414 12.20% 847 8.51% 66.88%

4 Gateway 1,038 8.95% 918 9.23% 13.03%

5 eMachines 521 4.49% 284 2.85% 83.42%

Others 4,751 40.97% 4,852 48.75% -2.09%

All Vendors 11,594 100.00% 9,953 100.00% 16.49%

· Shipments are branded factory shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.

· Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods.

· Data for Compaq shipments include Digital Equipment shipments; data for Acer includes Texas Instruments.

Source: IDC, June 2000

Table 2

Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, First Quarter 2000

(Thousands of Units)

Q1 2000 Q1 2000 Market Q1 1999 Market Growth

Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 2000/99

1 Compaq 3,951 12.84% 3,557 14.03% 11.07%

2 Dell 3,189 10.37% 2,451 9.67% 30.14%

3 Hewlett-Packard 2,488 8.09% 1,579 6.23% 57.60%

4 IBM 1,873 6.09% 2,171 8.56% -13.70%

5 Fujitsu Siemens 1,776 5.77% 1,589 6.27% 11.78%

Others 17,484 56.84% 14,003 55.24% 24.86%