IDC Predicts Stabilization in Optical Networks Will Come At Last

FRAMINGHAM, MA – FEBRUARY 20, 2003 – Next generation optical networking will begin to stabilize, a major long-haul dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM) equipment vendor will exit the market, and metro ethernet will present the strongest revenue growth opportunity in 2003. These are three of the predictions for optical networking outlined in a new IDC study entitled, The Optical Networks Crystal Ball: What's in Store for 2003?


"Absence of growth in optical in 2003 should not signal that this is a market at rest," said Sterling Perrin, senior research analyst at IDC.

"Next-generation optical networking is far from mature and major shifts will likely take place throughout 2003. The events and milestones of 2003 will define the nature of the recovery to follow."

Other IDC predictions for 2003 include the following:

Long-haul DWDM will contract again – but not as badly

Tunable lasers will become "real"

Metro ethernet will start to challenge passive optical networks (PON)

Code wave division multiplexing (CWDM) will challenge DWDM in the metro

Cisco will make a major optical acquisition

IDC’s recently released study, The Optical Networks Crystal Ball:

What's in Store for 2003? (IDC #28807), analyzes the major trends that will shape the next-generation optical landscape in 2003 and beyond. The study analyzes the market impacts of each of the predictions and details the rationale behind each choice.

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About IDC

IDC is the foremost global market intelligence and advisory firm helping clients gain insight into technology and ebusiness trends to develop sound business strategies. Using a combination of rigorous primary research, in-depth analysis, and client interaction, IDC forecasts worldwide markets and trends to deliver dependable service and client advice. More than 700 analysts in 43 countries provide global research with local content. IDC’s customers comprise the world’s leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, ebusiness companies, and the financial community. Additional information can be found at

IDC is a division of IDG, the world’s leading IT media, research, and exposition company.


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