IDC Predicts Worldwide Consumer PC Market Will Decline Nearly 10% in 2001

FRAMINGHAM, MA – SEPTEMBER 7, 2001 – Based on new data showing further weakness in the United States and internationally, IDC has lowered its forecasts for the consumer PC market worldwide. Consumer PC shipments are now expected to decline 9.6% worldwide in 2001 versus a previous forecast of -0.2% growth. Falling consumer PC shipments in the United States and Japan were a major factor in the adjustment. Far from recovering from the first quarter decline, U.S. consumer PC shipments were down 17% sequentially in the second quarter and down 21.8% year-on-year. In Japan, the consumer market was expected to slow from near 50% growth in 2000 but moved into negative territory in Q2 with a year-on-year decline of 10.2%.

 

With economic worries growing in the United States and abroad, IDC believes it’s unlikely the consumer PC market will improve much in the second half of 2001 even with the release of Windows XP. "For most consumers, a new PC is a very large discretionary purchase," said Roger Kay, director of Client Computing at IDC. "And that’s for new users. When it comes to replacing a system that probably meets a user’s basic needs, it’s an extremely tough sell in these economic times." Consumer PC shipments in the United States are expected to decline 25% in 2001 while, internationally, IDC projects flat consumer shipment growth for 2001, down from 39% growth in 2000.

Commercial PC shipment growth is also declining. IDC predicts the U.S. commercial segment will contract by 5.2% in 2001, down from 6.1% growth in 2000. Worldwide, commercial PC shipment growth is projected to fall from 10.5% in 2000 to 3.2% in 2001. "With a large base of fairly powerful computers installed and a relative lack of processor-hungry applications, many businesses are postponing PC upgrades and new purchases," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Both business and consumer buyers are simply finding other priorities right now."

IDC predicts the consumer PC market will begin to pick up outside the United States by mid to late 2002 as Windows XP gains momentum. Depending on the strength of the economy, the U.S. consumer market will pick up again around 2003. Commercial shipments are also expected to pick up in all major regions by the end of 2002, as older systems are phased out and businesses look to upgrading their OS platform in greater numbers.

U.S. and Worldwide Unit PC Shipments and Growth, 1999-2005

(Units Shipments are in millions)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

U.S. Units Home 17.2 18.9 14.1 11.6 13.1 13.9 14.6

Commercial 27.9 29.5 28.0 28.8 32.4 35.7 36.9

Total 45.1 48.4 42.1 40.4 45.5 49.6 51.5

U.S. Growth Home 9.4% -25.0% -17.8% 12.8% 6.1% 4.9%

Commercial 6.1% -5.2% 2.8% 12.6% 10.2% 3.5%

Total 7.3% -13.0% -4.1% 12.7% 9.0% 3.9%

Non-U.S. Units Home 21.5 29.9 30.0 34.4 39.5 45.2 50.8

Commercial 47.2 53.3 57.5 63.8 71.7 80.3 88.9

Total 68.7 83.3 87.5 98.2 111.2 125.5 139.7

Non-U.S. Growth Home 39.0% 0.1% 14.8% 14.9% 14.3% 12.4%

Commercial 13.1% 7.8% 11.0% 12.3% 12.0% 10.7%

Total 21.2% 5.1% 12.3% 13.2% 12.8% 11.3%

Worldwide Units Home 38.8 48.8 44.1 46.0 52.7 59.1 65.4

Commercial 75.0 82.9 85.5 92.6 104.1 116.0 125.8

Total 113.8 131.7 129.6 138.6 156.7 175.1 191.2

Worldwide Growth Home 25.8% -9.6% 4.3% 14.4% 12.2% 10.6%

Commercial 10.5% 3.2% 8.3% 12.4% 11.4% 8.5%

Total 15.7% -1.6% 6.9% 13.1% 11.7% 9.2%

Source: IDC, September 7, 2001

About IDC

IDC delivers dependable, high-impact insights and advice on the future of ebusiness, the Internet, and technology to help organizations make sound business decisions. IDC forecasts worldwide markets and trends and analyzes business strategies, technologies, and vendors, using a combination of rigorous primary research and in-depth competitive analysis. IDC provides global research with local content through more than 700 analysts in 43 countries worldwide. IDC's customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, ebusiness companies, and the financial community. Additional information can be found at http://www.idc.com.

IDC is a division of IDG, the world's leading IT media, research and exposition company.

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