IDC Reviews Australian PC Shipment Forecasts

NORTH SYDNEY – MARCH 25, 2002 – IDC has raised its forecast for Australian PC shipment growth in 2002 from the January forecast of 6.0% to a moderately revised figure of 6.4% in response to signs of growth in key segments, and the 2002 outlook of key personnel and senior/IT management in the largest organisations in Australia.


The latest results from IDC's Market Sentiment Monitor (a survey released this month of 250 organisations in Australia with 250 employees or more) shows that most senior and IT management (CIOs, CEOs, CTOs) believe that economic conditions will improve in 2002. Specifically, 74% of all such respondents indicated that they were at least somewhat positive, if not positive or very positive about the economic climate in Australia in the coming 6 months. In addition, 81.9% claimed that business prospects for their company will be at least somewhat positive within the next 6 months, if not better.

Reuben Tan, IDC Market Analyst, notes that this translates into significant plans to upgrade existing hardware infrastructure, which was put off by many large enterprises in the past year. PC replacement cycles, being stretched from the typical 3 years, are now overdue and the pent up demand should start to be fulfilled in 2002. This is reiterated by the Market Sentiment Monitor, which specifies that out of the total budget for IT, a whopping 25.2% of respondents stated that systems infrastructure was the highest and number one priority, followed by industry specific and CRM development as distant second (11.6%) and third (11.2%) priorities respectively. 22% (the median) of all respondents indicated an IT budget for 2002 of AUD $1-4.9 million, out of which a higher proportion (32%, as opposed to 28% in 2001) will be spent on much needed rollouts of PCs and associated infrastructure. 46% of respondents indicated that their actual IT budgets had increased from 2001, which means more money in absolute terms being spent on hardware as well.

Preliminary signs from Q1 2002 are showing that notebook uptake has been very aggressive. IDC?s forecast for notebook sales growth in 2002 has been increased from 10.8% in January to 11%. IDC believes that consumer growth will also recover in the second half of 2002, as the growing commercial sector result in lower unemployment and increased disposable income.

IDC believes that notebook sales will also increase come second half of 2002 due to a host of push and pull factors. The availability of the new Windows XP Service Pack 1, as well as an ever-increasing number of notebook models touting the new P4-M processor, blue tooth and WLAN cards. These factors will give incentive to companies which have been withholding system replacements to finally undertake rollouts.

For IDC Australias PC Market Forecast 2000 to 2002 (units), March 2002 click here:

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