IDG Provides Comprehensive IT Industry Forecast After September 11, 2001
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 11, 2001 – International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading technology media company, today presents a webcast and a telebriefing by market research subsidiary IDC to announce an analysis of the IT industry. IDC's telebriefing will take place today from 12pm EST – 1:30pm EST. To register for the telebriefing (1), please visit: http://www.idc.com/telb/reg/telbreg.htm. The interactive webcast entitled "The IT Market Ahead" features IDG Founder and Chairman, Patrick McGovern; IDC Senior Vice President and Chief Research Officer, John Gantz; Group Publisher of CIO Magazine, Gary Beach; and IDG President and CEO, Kelly Conlin. The webcast will be archived at: http://www.itworld.com/itwebcast/IT_Market.
Using an economic model to examine IT growth trends during national crises such as Desert Storm, Y2K and the Internet stock crash, IDC sized the impact of business disruptions from the events of September 11. While lost business revenues totaled in the hundreds of billions of dollars, this alone did not affect the industry. Lower consumer and business confidence is also forcing the decline of the IT industry. These factors will delay the economic turnaround that was anticipated to begin in Q4 of 2001 into mid-2002.
"While this will impact the industry's last quarter of revenue, over the next five quarters IT users worldwide will spend more than $1.3 trillion," said IDG Founder and Chairman Patrick J. McGovern. "In fact, IDC predicts that in 2002 alone, they will spend $100 billion more than in 2001."
IDC expects IT spending to increase by the third quarter of next year with 4 to 6 percent growth in the United States, 6 to7 percent in Western Europe, and 10 to12 percent in Asia Pacific. Analysts believe that IT budgets will be at higher levels next year, but that spending against these budgets will be on a project-to-project basis.
"Prior to September 11, things were starting to look up for the U.S. economy, with consumer spending above 2 percent, tax rebates almost at .5 percent of GDP, and interest rate cuts of 3 percent," said John Gantz, IDC Chief Research Officer. "Now, we are anticipating our economic recovery to stretch out one to two additional quarters."
Driving the post-September 11 recovery of the IT industry will be investments in ebusiness initiatives, integration of web sites with core business processes, and mobile applications. IDC research indicates while the number of Web sites are expected to double in the next five years, the number of transaction-intense Web sites – the million-dollar sites – will grow by a factor of 10. Similarly, the number of mobile Internet users will jump to more than half a billion by 2005.
IDC's model also reveals important information about the impact on IT users. Over the next year IT users will focus more on security issues and are expected to move forward with previously planned projects. Experimental projects will continue to be delayed.
Finally, this tragedy in the U.S. changed financial interests. IDC believes major corporate investments will be delayed, however by mid-2002, pent up pressure will drive new projects. As the market begins to look for new investments and growth opportunities, potential mergers and acquisitions will surface again.
About International Data Corporation (IDC)
IDC is the foremost global market intelligence and advisory firm helping clients gain insight into technology and ebusiness trends to develop sound business strategies. Using a combination of rigorous primary research, in-depth analysis, and client interaction, IDC forecasts worldwide markets and trends to deliver dependable service and client advice. More than 700 analysts in 43 countries provide global research with local content. Additional information can be found at http://www.idc.com. IDC is a division of IDG, the world's leading IT media, research and exposition company.
About International Data Group (IDG)
Headquartered in Boston, International Data Group (IDG) informs more people worldwide about information technology than any other company. With annual revenues of $3.1 billion, IDG is the leading global provider of IT media, research, conferences and events. IDG publishes more than 300 newspapers and magazines in 85 countries, led by the Computerworld /InfoWorld, Macworld, Network World, PC World, and CIO global product lines. IDG.net (http://www.idg.net), IDG's Technology Directory, covers the world's largest network of technology-specific web sites, comprised of more than 300 IDG sites in 70 countries. IDG also produces 168 technology-related events. Company information is available at http://www.idg.com.
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