PC Market on Slow Road to Recovery, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, MA – JUNE 13, 2002 – Slightly better-than-expected growth in the first quarter and signs of commercial market purchasing have led IDC to raise its worldwide PC shipment forecast for 2002 from 3% to 4.7% growth.


With the exception of Japan, all major regions were slightly ahead of forecast in the first quarter and are expected to log positive growth in 2002. "We are still waiting for large-business spending to kick in," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, "but demand from smaller enterprises and in the consumer segment is building slowly. We expect seasonal increases in the second half of the year to be boosted by slow but steady improvement in the commercial sector."

"U.S. consumers have remained in the game, nearly tiding us over until the 2nd half, when enterprises are expected to begin a serious refresh of their pre-millennium systems," said Roger Kay, director of Client Computing at IDC.

Regional Outlook:

United States – Commercial demand should recover steadily throughout 2002 driven first by small businesses and later by large business refreshes. The consumer segment should also continue to improve with seasonal back to school and holiday growth driving the second half.

Western Europe – While portables continued to drive growth in 1Q02, poor demand for desktops in both commercial and consumer segments is expected to limit recovery going forward. The European market is expected to rebound less dramatically than the United States market as a result of constrained commercial spending and because the slowdown in 2001 was less extreme.

Japan – While overall demand will remain down double digits in 2Q02, positive growth is expected in the second half. Total shipments are expected to decline in 2002, but return to positive growth in 2003 and 2004.

Asia/Pacific – With consumer growth expected to recover in 2H02 and commercial growth driven by the education and government segments, this region will continue to lead worldwide growth.

U.S. and Worldwide Unit PC Shipments and Growth, 1999-2003

Region 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

USA Units (M)          

Consumer 17.69 19.31 15.51 16.68 17.76

Commercial 30.94 32.66 30.54 31.89 35.82

Total 48.63 51.97 46.04 48.57 53.58

Worldwide Units (M)          

Consumer 40.99 51.89 46.78 49.50 54.26

Commercial 79.05 87.26 86.69 90.21 100.99

Total 120.04 139.15 133.47 139.71 155.25

USA Growth (%)          

Consumer 40.8% 9.1% -19.7% 7.6% 6.4%

Commercial 13.0% 5.6% -6.5% 4.4% 12.3%

Total 21.8% 6.9% -11.4% 5.5% 10.3%

Worldwide Growth (%)          

Consumer 46.0% 26.6% -9.8% 5.8% 9.6%

Commercial 14.2% 10.4% -0.7% 4.1% 12.0%

Total 23.4% 15.9% -4.1% 4.7% 11.1%

(Units Shipments are in millions)

Source: IDC, June 2002

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 55 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-962-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

To purchase this document, call IDC's volume sales hotline at 508-988-7988 or email ctoffel@idc.com.

About IDC

IDC is the foremost global market intelligence and advisory firm helping clients gain insight into technology and ebusiness trends to develop sound business strategies. Using a combination of rigorous primary research, in-depth analysis, and client interaction, IDC forecasts worldwide markets and trends to deliver dependable service and client advice. More than 700 analysts in 43 countries provide global research with local content. IDC's customers comprise the world’s leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, ebusiness companies, and the financial community. Additional information can be found at www.idc.com.

IDC is a division of IDG, the world's leading IT media, research and exposition company.


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